UCL Discovery

Abstract

　製造業の社長交代を Semiparametric の Survival Analysis を用いて分析した．社長交代確立は企業業績と負の相関があり，その Hazard は二つの山をもつ．役員持ち株比率により Hazard のピークが一つとなるように企業サンプルを分割することが可能であり，長い社長 Tenure を持つ企業でも社長交代は企業業績と負で有意な関係がある．一方，外部出身取締役および銀行出身取締役の存在やその割合が Hazard に与える影響は限定的である．これは Fama（1980）のモデルを経営者の労働市場が未発達な状況に応用したものと整合的である． / We analyze top executive turnover and its relationship to outside directors and firm performance in Japanese manufacturing companies. A semiparametric survival analysis reveals that the turnover probability has negative correlation with firm performance and that the hazard function has two peaks that can be decomposed by the degree of managerial shareholdings. Firm performance has significant negative effects on the turnover probability, even among firms with large managerial shareholdings and long tenure of top executives. On the other hand, outside directors or directors from banking sectors exert little effects on the hazard. These findings are consistent with a model by Fama (1980) applied to an economy with less developed managerial labor markets.